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30
Sep
The best investment over the past 10 years has been gold. The good news is you don’t have to buy gold bullion to play. There is an ETF (GLD) that tracks the price of gold. How good of an investment has it been? If you would have had all your money in the S&P 500 or equivalent over the past 10 years, you wouldn’t have made ANY money. In fact, you would have had a small loss. However, an investment in gold yielded 400% during the same time period!
Gold moves opposite the dollar (ETF: UUP) as an inflation hedge. UUP looks like it’s about to find some support after a nosedive since late August. And, although GLD will remain a wonderful long-term investment, it looks ready for a multi-week pullback. Today’s chart is the weekly chart of GLD (so each candlestick represents one week).
COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
“A” is the impressive uptrend the price has been in throughout 2010. However, look at the MACD during the same time. The price keeps making new highs, while the MACD cannot. Looks like a powerful triple divergence setting up on the MACD.
“B” is the 50 day moving average. As you can see, GLD is trading WAY above both the 50 and 200, making it a very, very bullish investment. The 13 day EMA (green line) is a good pullback target. I would expect GLD to settle down to 120-121 (and possibly 114) over the next 2-4 weeks before another thrust up.
Looking at “C,” you can see that the buying volume has decreased for the past 3 weeks while the price kept going up. This means the buyers are drying up for now and a pullback is imminent.
“D” is the downslope of the MACD and flat line of the histogram diverging with the price.
“E” is the 14-week RSI, which is a momentum indicator. The “overbought” level of 70 has been breached. The last 3 times this happened, a selloff followed.
Company Invest Bottom Line: While GLD is a great investment, take some profits and look to load up again at the 120 level (or even 114). Another play is DZZ, a “short” gold ETF. i.e., when the GLD goes down, DZZ goes up.
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