It’s been a crazy week on Wall Street.  The move has been mostly down with the exception of yesterday’s tremendous rally because of the GM IPO and a better than expected economic report (Philadelphia Manufacturing).  But all week the retail sector has been strong, and today’s Company Invest pick, Lowe’s (LOW) in particular looks poised for a big rally.

COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Looking at the chart “A” is the 3-day Relative Strength Index.  As you can see the momentum is positive and it is about to break through 50.  RSI readings above 50 are considered quite bullish.

“B” is the price chart.  Notice, instead of the usual candlesticks, I chose to display a line chart.  This is good for seeing certain patterns.  There is a powerful bullish pattern called the “W” pattern.  Essentially it is a double bottom pattern where the stock sells off, rallies, then pulls back again before really taking off, thus forming a “W” shape.  Two keys to this pattern:  #1 the second “V” of the “W” should not dip as low as the first.  What this says is that after a rally, there was just some normal profit taking (not a heavy selloff).  #2  The most powerful occurrence of the “W” pattern is when you see it occur right under a major moving average.  That’s because many short sellers place their stops right above moving averages.  So the theory is, if the stock price breaks through the moving average, those shorts will be forced to cover and buy back shares they sold, thus making the stock move even higher.  If it sounds confusing, don’t worry.  Just look for the W under either the 50 day or 200 day moving average with the right side higher than the left and you’ve got a winner.   And look at Thursday’s chart of LOW.  BINGO!

“C” is the MACD histogram.  Yesterday we got a bullish pPp reversal on the chart.  This is a 3-bar reversal where you have a selling bar, a deeper selling bar, then a shallower selling bar.  Confirmation of this pattern will occur when LOW closes above $21.64 (yesterday’s close).

“D” is the slow stochastic momentum indicator.  Notice the nice higher low the stochastic put in (green up-sloping line).  Also, we got a bullish touch of the signal line (black) with the stochastic line (red).  Look for a solid cross of the signal line to the upside for confirmation.

Company Invest Bottom Line: Looking at the black parallel lines in the price chart it looks like LOW could easily gain 10% in the near future and move to the $23.25 area for a great trade.  Start with 50 or 100 shares and put a stop in at $1 below the purchase price.

Company Invest Recent Picks:  Still holding ERY and QID despite a rough day yesterday.

We strive to supply our readers with the best stock picks and investment advice at companyinvest.com.  Using the trading strategies we apply here, you can make 20-30% returns every year, even in a down year for the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial average.

One measure of computing investment doubling time is the “Rule of 72.”

The ‘Rule of 72‘ is a simplified way to determine how long an investment will take to double, given a fixed annual rate of interest. By dividing 72 by the annual rate of return, investors can get a rough estimate of how many years it will take for the initial investment to duplicate itself.

For example, the rule of 72 states that $1 invested at 10% would take 7.2 years ((72/10) = 7.2) to turn into $2.

The Rule of 72 is not a perfect indicator, but is remarkably accurate and simple. The chart below outlines the Rule of 72 doubling times (in years) for low to high end annual returns.

The low end of the range is a typical return you would get out of a bank savings account or Certificate of Deposit (CD). If you want to create the kind of wealth needed for a comfortable retirement, you simply can’t afford to park your money in an investment vehicle that doubles only every 24 to 36 years!

However, if you follow a disciplined trading strategy, always using stops, along with the techniques taught on this site, you can double your money every 2 to 4 years!  With the power of compounding, you can amass a very sizeable retirement nest-egg over time!

WHAT IS A MUTUAL FUND?

A mutual fund is an open-ended fund operated by an investment company, which raises money from shareholders and invests in a group of assets, in accordance with a stated set of objectives. Mutual funds raise money by selling shares of the fund to the public, much like any other type of company can sell stock in itself to the public. Mutual funds then take the money they receive from the sale of their shares (along with any money made from previous investments) and use it to purchase various investment vehicles, such as stocks, bonds and money market instruments. In return for the money they give to the fund when purchasing shares, shareholders receive an equity position in the fund and, in effect, in each of its underlying securities. Benefits of mutual funds include diversification and professional money management.

Our Take: Recent studies have concluded that the over 85% of mutual funds CANNOT beat the annual return of the S&P 500.  So much for professional money management.  In addition, mutual funds are expensive, with front end commissions and several “hidden fees,” that the average Joe has no clue about.  And your performance is dependent on the fund manager buying and selling the right securities at just the right time.  And fund managers do not get bonuses due to good performance; they get bonuses only based on the amount of dollars coming into the fund.  So all their efforts go into getting as many people to buy into their funds as possible.  Also, very few of the strategies on this site can be applied to mutual funds.

WHAT IS AN EXCHANGE TRADED FUND (ETF)?

An ETF is a fund that tracks an index, but can be traded like a stock. ETFs always bundle together the securities that are in an index. Investors can do just about anything with an ETF that they can do with a normal stock, such as short selling. Because ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they can be bought and sold at any time during the day (unlike most mutual funds).

Their price will fluctuate from moment to moment, just like any other stock’s price, and an investor will need a broker in order to purchase them, which means that he/she will have to pay a commission. On the plus side, ETFs are more tax-efficient than normal mutual funds, and since they track indexes they have very low operating and transaction costs associated with them. There are no sales loads or investment minimums required to purchase an ETF.

Our Take:  We love ETFs.  ETFs charge a fraction of the fees of mutual funds and can be traded just like a stock.  And online broker’s offer very reasonable commissions ranging from $4 to $10 per trade.  Additionally, ALL of the trading strategies you read about on CompanyInvest.com can be used on ETFs.

MORE REASONS TO BUY ETFs

There are two main reasons we love ETFs at CompanyInvest.com:

#1: ETFs have much lower fees than mutual funds.  Over time this can be very significant.  Consider the following example:

Investor A has a portfolio of four of the leading mutual funds with an average expense ratio of 2.16% (Typical of a mutual fund portfolio).  He initially invests $1 million.  His  portfolio yields a 10% annual return.  After 30 years, his portfolio grows to $9.6 million.  Not bad right?

Investor B has a portfolio of four of the leading ETFs with an average expense ratio of 0.19% (Typical of an ETF portfolio).  He also initially invests $1 million.  Let’s assume his portfolio also yields 10% a year.  After 30 years, investor B’s portfolio grows to $16.5 million!

So over a 30 year period, with identical annual rates of return, Investor B has accumulated nearly $7 million more dollars than Investor A.  And that is ALL due to higher fund expenses and other fees over time.

#2 ETFs can be traded just like a stock. This means you can buy and sell them whenever you want, and you can also short them (and make money even when the market is trending down).

ALL of the strategies we suggest on Companyinvest.com can be used with ETFs; but very few with mutual funds.  Once you learn to trade and incorporate trading strategies such as the ones taught on this site, you can beat the S&P 500 100% of the time; not 15% like the mutual funds.

Bottom Line: Participate in mutual funds if your company offers a matching contribution to your 401k program.  But consider opening a ROTH IRA (all the major online brokers such as Scottrade, Etrade, Tradeking, and Sharebuilder) offer them.  You will get much more bang for your buck and if you use the strategies discussed on our site, your annual return can be more like 20% per year, instead of the 10% used in the example above.

WHAT IS THE VIX?

 We strive to introduce new trading strategies at companyinvest.com.  Today we talk about a contrarian indicator, the VIX index.

 The VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index. It measures implied volatility (not historical or statistical volatility) of a wide range of S&P 500 options. It is often called the “investor fear gauge” because it reflects investor’s best prediction of near-term market volatility, or risk. In general, VIX starts to rise during times of financial stress and lessens as investors become complacent. It is the market’s best prediction of near-term market volatility.  The good news is we can use the VIX to forecast the future direction of the market.

 HOW CAN YOU VIEW THE VIX?

 You can access the VIX index using your stock software or any major online trading platform software such as www.stockcharts.com or Yahoo Finance.  Enter the symbol “$VIX”. 

 USING THE VIX TO TRADE

 There is an old clichéd saying about the VIX index that goes:

 ”When the VIX is high, you buy… When it’s low, you GO!”

Looking at today’s chart of the VIX, “A” is the 3-day relative strength index (RSI).  Look at the past 3 times the levels were this oversold (green circles).  They all led to rallies in the VIX, while at the same time corrections in the S&P 500.  Here’s how they played out:

• June 21-Jun 30 VIX rally =     10.67% Correction in S&P 500
• July 12-July 18 VIX rally =     3.93% Correction in S&P 500
• October 19-20 VIX rally =       2.6% Correction in S& P 500
• November 5 to ? =                  3 to 10% S&P Correction on the HORIZON!

 ”B” is the price chart.  Right now the VIX is approaching a several month low, so if the saying rings true, you should sell some of your long positions or consider going short for the impending correction.  Also, today’s candlestick is a doji, indicating a probable change in trend.

 ”C” is the MACD histogram, a wonderful forecaster of trend change.  It looks like a bullish divergence is forming, meaning the VIX price made a LOWER low, while at the same time the MACD is forming a HIGHER low.

 Bottom Line: Position yourself for a 3 to 10% market correction.

 RECENT COMPANY INVEST PICKS

 We found some hot stocks recently!

 US Steel (X).  We said to buy shares at the $40 level on October 28, and since then the stock has rallied over 21%!  Many investors don’t get that kind of return in a whole year.  What to do:  Take 3/4 to all of your position off and put the profits in your pocket.

 Double Bull Gold (DGP).  We said to buy shares at the $39 level.  The trade is currently up 6.5% and still rising.  What to do:  HOLD or put a 5% trailing stop in.

With the dollar rallying most of the past week, materials and commodity stocks have consequently sold off hard and US Steel is no exception.  Since October 11 (in just two weeks), the stock has pulled back 13.51%.

Trading is all about finding the right time to buy.  Many investors strictly look at company fundamentals (earnings, cash on hand, debt, price to earnings ratios, etc) to place trades.  Problem is fundamentals will tell you WHY to buy a stock, but not WHEN to buy.  That is where technical analysis comes in.  Using chart patterns and momentum indicators, we can tell when the highest probability of a good trade will occur.  And at Company Invest, we think right now is a great time for a US Steel trade.

COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

“A” is the 3-day relative strength index, a favorite swing trading indicator at companyinvest.com.  As you can clearly see, this indictor is WAY oversold (brown area). Look at what happened the last 5 times the RSI was this oversold (green circles).  Now look at the corresponding green arrows on the price chart that indicate trade entry points.  Each entry point resulted in a minimum of a 10% gain!  And here we are again…

“B” is the daily stock pricing chart (going back to mid May).  “Support” is very important in technical analysis.  Support happens when the big investors (pension funds, hedge funds, 401k fund manager) come in and buy.  We’ve illustrated two key levels of support on this chart (S1 and S2).  US Steel has been trading right at the S1 support level for the past three trading sessions without falling below it.  In this case it means buying the stock at $40 and change is a great entry.  Notice how the $40 level was also key support back on June 7.  And should the S1 support break, the next support level (S2) is the $37 area.

Also, the red selling volume bars have been getting shorter over the last 3 trading sessions while the stock has been basing.

“C” is the MACD histogram which gives nice advance signals for stock directional change.  Although you can see selling momentum has been occurring (stair step down blue bars), it looks as if a bullish divergence is occurring between the MACD histogram and the price chart (green line in “C” Vs. red line in “B”).  Simply put, it looks as if a higher low is setting up on the histogram, while at the same time a lower low has occurred on the price chart.

“D” is the slow stochastic momentum indicator.  At 8.88, it’s also deeply oversold.  Look for the signal line (black) to cross up through the MACD line (red) in the next day or two.  Multi day rallies in the stock occurred the last 4 times this signal was triggered (green circles).

Company Invest Bottom Line:   Grab US Steel (X) here and point your stop loss order in just below support at around $39.95.  A $44 price target could be hit in just a few trading days.

Today at Company Invest, we focus on the retail sector and today’s pick looks like a great trade.  It’s Home Depot, member of the DOw 30, and the largest home improvement retailer in the country.

While the S&P and DOW have continued to go up, retail has taken a beating over the past 5-6 trading sessions, meaning it’s a good buy because we always try and buy stocks on sale. But looking at the daily chart, HD is in a great spot for a swing trade for a possible 10% pop to the upside.

COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

“A” is the 3-day RSI.  The three day timeperiod is ideal for swing trades.  Look at the pattern of green circles to see that when the stock is this oversold, it nearly always rallies for 3 or more days.

“B” is important for two reasons.  #1, today’s candlestick was a “hammer.”  Look at the long tail, indicating strong support.  #2, notice where the stock closed today.  Right exactly at the 200 day moving average (major support). The trade is ideal, because if we open up lower in the morning, you could buy it below $30.50 and put a stop right at $29.75 (the 50 day moving average (blue line)).  Your risk will be less than .75 cents, but you could easily pick up $3-$4 on the upside at a target  of $33.

The MACD histogram “C” (blue bars) failed to put in a lower bar today.  Look for a higher bar tomorrow for confirmation of a reversal.

Finally, “D,” the stochastic oscillator, which measures momentum, is bottomed out, while at the same time the stock is sitting right on support.

Company Invest Bottom Line: Grab it here, stop at $29.75 for a run to $33.