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18
Feb
COMPANY INVEST CURRENT TAKE: QUANTITATIVE EASING AND THE STOCK MARKET
In early November, 2010 the Federal Reserve announced it would embark on a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE). In simplistic terms, with short term interest rates already at zero, the Fed was running out of bullets. The market had rebounded nicely but unemployment was close to 10% and the consumer just wasn’t spending.
For those who don’t know, QE is essentially monetizing our own debt through the expansion of the US money supply and subsequent purchase of US Treasury notes with that phantom money. The goal was to keep mortgage rates low, spur spending, goose the stock market, and move the economic “recovery” out of the doldrums.
Well, it certainly has accomplished one goal, consider the market goosed. Outside of an initial selloff in November right when the program began, there hasn’t been a single sustained market correction since. All major indices are at multi-year highs and even on days when it seems the market will surely drop, it doesn’t. You see, the Government buys those treasury bonds on the open market from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like — and paying them huge commissions. These purchases have averaged $6 to $8 billion each and every day. That money is then funneled into stocks, because the market can’t go down right now, right?
To make a long story short, there are some stocks that have pulled back even during QE. We’ve been able to grab some of them recently (SSRI, JRCC). When you can find a stock that has pulled back in this environment with the right setup, strike while the iron is hot. QE2 is set to end in June, so the way we look at it, there is anywhere from 5-13 weeks of rally time left. Today’s Company Invest pick, Sierra Wireless, just may be one to ride the remainder of the duration.
SWIR PROFILE
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) provides wireless solutions for mobile commuting and machine to machine markets. The company’s products and solutions connect people, their mobile computers, and fixed terminals to wireless voice and mobile broadband networks. Its mobile computing products are used by businesses, consumers, and government organizations to enable high speed wireless access to a range of applications
FUNDAMENTAL TIDBITS
Price to Sales Ratio: 0.55 (a wonderful value)
- Forward PE: 11.88 (Also good)
- Cash: 111.85 Mill.
- Debt: 587 K
COMPANY INVEST TECHNICAL TAKE
Today’s chart is a weekly chart which is used for longer term trades or investments. Each candle represents one week. We get a good, long term snapshot here.
The 3 Week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bottomed out in the midst of an uptrend. Look at the 1st red circle on the chart (at the top left), which was another recent time this happened. There was a 5-6 week rally that followed.
The weekly candlestick price chart has a few interesting points to note. First, the 10 day EMA is greater than the 20 day EMA, and both are above the 50 day EMA. This is called a bullish alignment. although these averages have started to curl over, it would take a great selloff to dismantle this alignment.
Next, look at the trend line (blue line) going all the way back to the March, 2009 lows. What this shows is although we may be just a bit early on a trade here (the price could still go down some more), there is SOLID support at the $10 range. Expect a bounce and resumption of the uptrend between now and $10.
Finally, the HUGE selling bar of two weeks ago could be considered a capitulation of sorts. Sellers dumped, and dumped fast, but that momentum appears to have waned.
Next, we look at the MACD indicator. Although we have a bearish cross on the MACD line and signal line, more than likely after tomorrow’s close, the histogram (blue bars) will put in a higher low. This is known as a PpP reversal, and is an early signal of directional change.
Last, we look at the slow stochastic momentum indicator. At 32 and dropping, there is still some downward pressure here. However, a bullish divergence could be setting up with a higher low forming on the stochastic line. Also, the last time the stochastic line was at the 20 level (oversold), SWIR was selling for less than $7. We’ll most certainly get a higher low on the price chart, probably $10 or greater.
COMPANY INVEST BOTTOM LINE:
We’re a bit early, but some signals indicate dipping our toe in the water here is a good idea. Scale in with just 50 or 100 shares and set your stop at $9.87 or so (right below trendline support). If it reverses, and runs through the end of QE in June, we could be looking at a $17-$18 target.
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